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• Half-title page
• Title page
• Copyright page
• Contents
• List of Maps
• List of Tables
• Preface
• Acknowledgments
• List of Key People
• 1 The Sources of Conflict over Ukraine
• Competing Visions and Interests after the Cold War
• Debating the Causes of the War
• Locating the Sources of International Conflict
• The Approach: Historical and Analytical
• Analytical Themes
• Competing Goals and Incompatible Perceptions of the Status Quo
• The Security Dilemma
• Democracy and Power Politics
• Domestic Constraints and State Strength
• Proximate Causes
• Overview of the Book
• Summary
• 2 New World Order? 1989–1993
• Introduction
• The Road to Ukrainian Independence
• Creating a State
• Belavezha: The Civilized Divorce
• The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS)
• Problems of Economic Coordination and the Collapse of the Ruble Zone
• The Black Sea Fleet, Sevastopol, and Crimea
• The Emergence of Energy Politics
• Poland: The Dog That Didn’t Bark
• Ukraine’s Domestic Political Instability
• Western Aid: A Missed Opportunity?
• Nuclear Weapons and the Security Dilemma
• Russia, the “Near Abroad,” and Ukraine
• Clinton, Yeltsin, and Russian Democracy
• The Prehistory of NATO Expansion
• Conclusion
• 3 Hope and Hardship, 1994–1999
• Russia Debates Its Role
• Ukraine’s 1994 Elections
• Kuchma’s “Multivector” Foreign Policy
• Trade and the Commonwealth of Independent States
• Crimea
• The Black Sea Fleet and the 1997 Friendship Treaty
• Bosnia Drives a Wedge
• Kuchma and the United States
• Ukraine and NATO
• Ukraine and the European Union
• Kosovo Deepens Russia’s Conflict with the West
• Conclusion
• 4 Autocracy and Revolution, 1999–2004
• Kuchma’s Consolidation and the Foreign Policy Effects
• Deteriorating Ties with the West
• Kuchma’s Turn toward Russia
• The EU, Ukraine, and Russia
• The Evolution of Energy Politics
• The West, Russia, and Ukraine
• The Orange Revolution: Prelude
• The Orange Revolution: Crisis and Aftermath
• Consequences of the Orange Revolution
• Conclusion
• 5 Reform and Reversal, 2004–2010
• The Collapse of the Orange Coalition and the Resurrection of Viktor Yanukovych
• Foreign Policy under Yushchenko
• Russia Responds to the Orange Revolution
• Ukraine and the EU
• Energy Politics
• The West, Russia, and Ukraine
• The Bucharest Summit
• Russia Invades Georgia
• Reset and Overload
• The Road to Ukraine’s 2010 Presidential Election
• Conclusion
• 6 Viktor Yanukovych and the Path to Confrontation, 2010–2013
• Yanukovych Consolidates Power
• 2012 Parliamentary Elections
• A New Pivot to Russia
• The 2012 Language Law
• Russia, the United States, and Europe
• Integration: The European Union and Russia Compete for Ukraine
• Yanukovych, Autocracy, and Revolution
• Conclusion
• 7 From Revolution to War, 2013–2015
• The Emergence of Protest: November–December 2013
• Yanukovych Looks to Russia
• Reaction in Russia and the West
• Russia Seizes Crimea
• The West Responds on Crimea
• NATO’s Response
• Intervention in Eastern Ukraine
• Russia’s Diplomatic Offensive
• Attempts at Conflict Resolution
• Ukraine Holds Elections
• The Conflict Grows
• The West’s Response to the War in Eastern Ukraine
• MH17: The Conflict Changes Course
• From Geneva to Normandy to Minsk
• The Battle for Debaltseve and Minsk-2
• Conclusion
• 8 The Conflict Smolders, 2015–2021
• Battlefield Stalemate
• Ukraine Blockades Donbas
• Tomos: Ukraine Declares Religious Independence
• Memory and Language Policies in Ukraine
• Russian Pressure in the Sea of Azov
• Energy Politics
• Ukraine and Europe
• The Truncation of the Ukrainian Electorate
• Ukraine’s 2019 Elections
• Reform under Zelenskyy
• Zelenskyy Seeks to Reboot the Peace Process
• Protest and Repression in Belarus, Russia, and Kazakhstan
• Ukraine Moves to Limit Russian Influence
• Russia Interferes in Western Elections
• The Failure of the Minsk Process and the Path to War
• Conclusion
• 9 War
• Prelude: Troop Buildup and Rhetorical Escalation
• How Was the Decision Made?
• The First Phase of the War: February and March 2022
• Why Did the Russian Army Perform So Badly?
• Phase II: Attritional Warfare in Donbas
• Ukraine’s Response
• The West’s Response
• Russia Flirts With Fascism
• War Crimes, Crimes against Humanity, and Genocide
• Russian Public Opinion on the War
• Negotiation
• Conclusion
• 10 Conclusion: From Cold War to Hot War
• Disagreements from the Beginning
• Events That Drove Wedges
• Events and Explanations
• Was War Inevitable?
• Prospects for Peace
• What Does the War Mean for Ukraine?
• What Does the War Mean for Russia?
• What Does the War Mean for Europe?
• What Does the War Mean for The Rest of the World?
• Causes and Policies
• A Final Word
• Bibliography
• Index