Efnisyfirlit

• Titlepage
• Copyright
• Contents
• Acknowledgments
• 1 Introduction
• 1.1 About This Book
• 1.2 Technology and Society
• 1.2.1 Social Change
• 1.2.2 Technological Change
• 1.3 Management and the Future
• 1.3.1 Management and Innovation Processes
• 1.3.2 The Role of Technology Forecasting
• 1.3.3 The Importance of Technology Forecasting
• 1.3.4 The Role of Social Forecasting
• 1.4 Conclusions
• References
• 2 Technology Forecasting
• 2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?
• 2.1.1 Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion
• 2.1.2 Technology Forecasting in Context
• 2.1.3 What Makes a Forecast Good?
• 2.1.4 Common Errors in Forecasting Technology
• 2.2 Methodological Foundations
• 2.2.1 The Technology Delivery System
• 2.2.2 Inquiring Systems
• 2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods
• 2.3.1 Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods
• 2.3.2 Method Selection
• 2.4 Conclusion
• References
• 3 Managing the Forecasting Project
• 3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project
• 3.1.1 The Technology Manager’s Needs
• 3.1.2 The Forecast Manager’s Needs
• 3.1.3 Information about Team Members
• 3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast
• 3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications
• 3.3.1 Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast
• 3.3.2 Communications
• 3.3.3 Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization
• 3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time
• 3.5 Project Scheduling
• 3.5.1 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)
• 3.5.2 Gantt Chart
• 3.5.3 Project Accountability Chart (PAC)
• 3.5.4 Project Scheduling Software
• 3.6 Conclusions
• References
• 4 Exploring
• 4.1 Establishing the Context—the TDS
• 4.1.1 Societal and Institutional Contexts
• 4.1.2 Technology Context
• 4.1.3 Stakeholders
• 4.1.4 Understanding the TDS
• 4.1.5 An Example TDS Model
• 4.2 Monitoring
• 4.2.1 Why Monitor?
• 4.2.2 Who Should Monitor?
• 4.2.3 Monitoring Strategy
• 4.2.4 Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues
• 4.2.5 Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development
• 4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity
• 4.3.1 Five Elements of Creativity
• 4.3.2 Group Creativity
• 4.4 Conclusion
• References
• 5 Gathering and Using Information
• 5.1 Expert Opinion
• 5.1.1 Selecting Experts
• 5.1.2 Selecting Expert Opinion Techniques
• 5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet
• 5.2.1 Science and Technology on the Internet
• 5.2.2 Society and Culture on the Internet
• 5.3 Structuring the Search
• 5.4 Preparing Search Results
• 5.5 Using Search Results
• 5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators
• 5.6.1 Science and Technology Indicators
• 5.6.2 Social Indicators
• 5.7 Communicating Search Results
• 5.8 Conclusions
• References
• 6 Analyzing Phase
• 6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods
• 6.1.1 Overview and Caveats
• 6.1.2 Internet Time Series Data and Trends
• 6.1.3 Analytical Modeling
• 6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions
• 6.3 Growth Models
• 6.3.1 The Models
• 6.3.2 Dealing with the Data
• 6.3.3 Regression and Growth Modeling: What Can Go Wrong?
• 6.4 Simulation
• 6.4.1 Quantitative Cross-Impact Analysis
• 6.4.2 Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis
• 6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation
• 6.5.1 Generating and Displaying Random Values
• 6.5.2 Sampling Multiple Random Variables
• 6.5.3 RFID Application in a Hospital Decision
• 6.6 System Dynamics
• 6.6.1 The System Dynamics Modeling Cycle
• 6.6.2 A Technology Forecasting Example: The Cable-to-the-Curb Model
• 6.7 Gaming
• 6.7.1 Decision Trees
• 6.7.2 Bayesian Estimation
• 6.7.3 Value of Information
• 6.7.4 Real Options Analysis
• 6.8 Software Suggestions
• 6.8.1 Software for Regression
• 6.8.2 Simulation Analysis Software
• 6.8.3 Software for Analysis of Decisions
• 6.8.4 Real Options Super Lattice Software
• 6.8.5 Software Sites
• References
• 7 Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis
• 7.1 Uncertainty
• 7.1.1 Uncertainty Frameworks
• 7.1.2 Source and Nature of Uncertainty
• 7.1.3 Uncertainty and the Adaptive Paradigm
• 7.1.4 Techniques for Addressing Uncertainty
• 7.2 Scenarios
• 7.2.1 Steps in Creating Scenarios
• 7.2.2 Types of Scenarios
• 7.3 Examples and Applications
• 7.3.1 Scenarios for Renewable Energy Planning
• 7.3.2 Pervasive Computing Scenarios
• 7.3.3 Scenarios for Social Change
• 7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques
• 7.4.1 Scenarios in Multimethodology Forecasts
• 7.4.2 Extensions of Scenario Analysis
• 7.5 Conclusions
• References
• 8 Economic and Market Analysis
• 8.1 The Context
• 8.1.1 Markets and Innovation
• 8.1.2 Technology and Institutions
• 8.2 Forecasting the Market
• 8.2.1 The Consumer/Customer Marketplace
• 8.2.2 Qualitative Techniques for Appraising Market Potential
• 8.2.3 A Quantitative Approach—Adoption and Substitution: S-Curve Models
• 8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context
• 8.3.1 Macroeconomic Forecasting
• 8.3.2 Input-Output Analysis
• 8.3.3 General Equilibrium Models
• 8.3.4 Hedonic Technometrics
• 8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context
• 8.4.1 Institutional Arrangements and the Market
• 8.4.2 Game Theory
• 8.4.3 Agent-Based Models
• 8.5 Conclusion
• References
• 9 Impact Assessment
• 9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting
• 9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology
• 9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment
• 9.4 Impact Identification
• 9.4.1 Scanning Techniques
• 9.4.2 Tracing Techniques
• 9.4.3 Narrowing the Impact Set and Estimating Effects
• 9.4.4 A Final Word
• 9.5 Impact Analysis
• 9.5.1 Analyzing Impacts on and Impacts of the Technology
• 9.5.2 Analyzing Technological Impacts
• 9.5.3 Analyzing Economic Impacts
• 9.5.4 Analyzing Environmental Impacts
• 9.5.5 Analyzing Social Impacts
• 9.5.6 Analyzing Institutional Impacts
• 9.5.7 Analyzing Political Impacts
• 9.5.8 Analyzing Legal and Regulatory Impacts
• 9.5.9 Analyzing Behavioral, Cultural, and Values Impacts
• 9.5.10 Analyzing Health-Related Impacts
• 9.6 Impact Evaluation
• 9.7 Conclusion
• References
• 10 Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis
• 10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices
• 10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis
• 10.2.1 Cost-Benefit Analysis within the Organization
• 10.2.2 Societal Stake and the Organizational Response
• 10.2.3 Cost-Benefit Analysis Methods
• 10.2.4 Economic Value Added
• 10.2.5 Earned Value Management
• 10.2.6 The Balanced Scorecard
• 10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty
• 10.3.1 Accounting for Risk within Organizations
• 10.3.2 Accounting for Risk—the Social Dimension
• 10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase
• References
• 11 Implementing the Technology
• 11.1 Forecasting Continues
• 11.2 Implementation Issues
• 11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation
• 11.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology
• 11.4.1 Measurement
• 11.4.2 Interpretive Structural Modeling
• 11.4.3 Analytic Hierarchy Process
• 11.4.4 Wrap-Up
• 11.5 Technology Roadmapping
• 11.6 Summary and Concluding Observations
• References
• 12 Managing the Present from the Future
• 12.1 The Overall Approach
• 12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques
• 12.2.1 Using the TDS and the Major Families of Techniques
• 12.2.2 The 80–20 Rule
• 12.3 Alternative Perspectives
• 12.4 Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments
• 12.5 Visions
• 12.6 A Final Word
• References
• Appendix A Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
• A.1 Framing the Case Study
• A.1.1 Characterizing the Technology
• A.1.2 Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
• A.2 Methods
• A.2.1 Engaging Experts and Multipath Mapping
• A.2.2 Developing the TDS
• A.2.3 Tech Mining (Chapter 5) and Science Overlay Mapping
• A.2.4 Trend Analyses
• A.2.5 Cross-charting and Social Network Analyses
• A.3 The Rest of the Story
• A.3.1 Market Forecasts
• A.3.2 Scenarios
• A.3.3 Technology Assessment
• A.3.4 Further Analyses and Communicating Results
• References
• Index
• EULA