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• Contents
• List of Figures
• List of Tables
• Introduction
• Introduction
• The Case for the Soft Perspective in System Dynamics
• The Case for the Hard Perspective in System Dynamics
• A Historical Perspective of the System Dynamics Field in Terms of Hard and  Soft Contributions
• The Book Content
• Conclusion
• Appendix
• References
• Part I: Applications of System Dynamics in Management
• Resetting the Clock: A Feedback Approach to the Dynamics of Organisational Inertia, Survival an
• Introduction
• A Feedback View of Organisational Inertia and Change
• Structural Inertia Theory
• Resetting the Clock: A Feedback Model
• From Feedback Loops to Dynamic Models
• Methods
• Simulating Organisational Theories
• Results
• Discussion and Conclusions
• Appendix: Model Equations and Documentation
• References
• Management Attitudes, Learning and Scale in Successful Diversification: A Dynamic and Behavioura
• Introduction
• Model of FocusCo, the Focuser
• Model of DiversiCo, the Diversifier
• A Closer Look at FocusCo
• Resources, Investment and Depreciation in the Core Business
• Return on the Core Business
• A Closer Look at DiversiCo
• The Trigger for Diversification
• Management’s Perception of Non-core Performance
• Investment Policy and Assets in the Non-core Business
• Disruption from Diversification and Its Effects on Performance
• Simulation Experiments on Diversification
• Experiment 1: FocusCo Faces a Sharp Downturn in Tyre Demand
• Experiment 2: DiversiCo Faces a Downturn in Tyre Industry Demand
• Comparing Performance—DiversiCo vs FocusCo
• Experiment 3: DiversiCo Faces a Downturn in Tyre Demand and Is Lured into ‘Excess’ Diversif
• Experiment 4: Non-core Growth and the Trade-Off Between Confidence and Learning
• Conclusions
• Appendix 1
• Appendix 2
• Appendix 3
• Appendix 4
• Appendix 5: Part 1
• Appendix 5: Part 2
• Appendix 6: Part 1
• Appendix 6: Part 2
• References
• Relevance Assumed: A Case Study of Balanced Scorecard Development Using System Dynamics
• Introduction
• Current BSC Theory and Practice
• System Dynamics as a Modelling Method for BSC Development
• The Case Study
• Qualitative Model Structure
• Quantitative Model Structure
• Flow of Cases
• Flow of Employees
• Model Analysis
• Overall Performance: Gradual Progress, But First Worse-Before-Better
• Existing Policies Insufficient for Swift Progress
• Unclear Benefits from Proposed Policies
• Unexpected Leverage from a Counter-Intuitive Policy
• Discussion
• Limitations: Modelling of ‘Mental Models’, Not of the ‘Real World’
• The Added Value of System Dynamics to BSC Development
• Conclusion
• References
• Interpersonal Success Factors for  Strategy Implementation: A Case Study Using Group Model Buildin
• Introduction
• Strategy Development and Implementation
• Implementation Success Factors
• Communication Quality
• Insight
• Consensus
• Commitment
• Open Issues in Strategy Implementation
• Group Model Building and Strategy
• Case Study
• Survey Questionnaire
• Results
• Survey Results from Likert Questions
• Survey Results Comparing Group Model Building to a ‘Normal Meeting’
• Survey Results Relating to Different Workshop Elements
• Relationship Between Demographic Data and Survey Results
• Open Questions
• Post-workshop Events
• Discussion
• Limitations of the Case Study
• References
• Part II: Methodological Developments
• An Overview of Strategy and Tactics in System Dynamics Optimization
• Introduction
• The Nature of System Dynamics Optimization
• Optimization to Fit Data
• Policy Optimization to Improve System Performance
• Optimization Techniques: Optimal Control
• Optimization Techniques: Algorithmic Search
• History of Pattern Search in System Dynamics
• Tactics for Search-Based Optimization
• Calibration Issues
• Defining the Objective Function
• Calibrating the Direct Search Approach
• Optimization by Direct Search: Examples
• Mathematical Curve Fitting
• Comparison Between Direct Search and Optimal Control
• Aggregate Production Planning
• A Problem with Spatial and Dynamic Elements
• Fitting an AIDS Model to Data
• Conclusions
• Appendix: Listing of DYSMOD Run for the Navigation Problem
• References
• Simulation by Repeated Optimisation
• Introduction
• The System Response and the Parameter Plane
• Hill-Climbing Optimisation
• Overcoming the Limitations of Heuristic Algorithms
• The Performance of a Simple Model
• Formulating an Objective Function
• The Significance of the Objective Function
• Optimisation Experiments
• Simulation by Repeated Optimisation
• Objective Functions for Constrained Optimisation
• Constrained Optimisation—A Case Example
• Constrained Optimisation and Marginal Investments
• Concluding Remarks
• References
• Judgement and Supply Chain Dynamics
• Introduction
• Research Background
• Judgemental Interventions in Supply Chain Management
• Factors Influencing the Bullwhip Effect
• System Dynamics Modelling of Supply Chains
• Experimental Structure
• Model Description
• Performance Measurement
• Analysis of Results
• Conclusions and Extensions
• Further Research
• Appendix: Model Equations
• References
• Comparing Discrete-Event Simulation and System Dynamics: Users’ Perceptions
• Introduction
• Existing Work on the Comparison of DES and SD Model Use
• Understanding
• Complexity
• Model Validity
• Model Usefulness
• Model Results
• Summary of Previous Comparison Work
• Methods and Research Design
• The Case Study
• The Simulation Models
• The Subjects
• The Sessions
• The Questionnaire
• Survey Results
• Respondents Profiles
• Comparing the Level of Understanding Using the DES and SD Model
• Factors that Help in Model Understanding
• Model Complexity
• Model Validity
• Model Usefulness
• Model Results
• Summary of Results
• Discussion and Concluding Remarks
• References
• Part III: Applications of System Dynamics at Industry Level
• Modelling the Sustainability of Mass Tourism in Island Tourist Economies
• Introduction
• Conventional Regression Tourism Demand Models
• A Generic System Dynamics Model of an Island Tourist Destination
• Preliminary Conceptualisation of the Model
• Basic Structure of the Generic Tourism Model
• Model Testing to Improve Users’ Confidence
• Policy Analysis Based Futures for Mass Tourism
• Changing Charter Flight Arrivals
• A Tourist Tax?
• Restricting the Construction of New Budget Hotels
• Discussion
• Conclusions
• References
• Modelling for Policy Assessment in the Natural Gas Industry
• Introduction
• Modelling the Natural Gas Industry
• Dynamics of Discoveries
• Costs and Technology
• Transportation
• Integration of Models and Policy Analysis
• Model Validation
• Policy Assessment
• Gas Demand and Substitution of Gasoline in Transportation
• Emissions Control
• Effect of the Gas Transport Network on the Market
• Conclusions
• References
• Understanding the Drivers of Broadband Adoption: The Case of Rural and Remote Scotland
• Introduction
• Broadband
• Scotland
• Broadband Availability
• Broadband Adoption
• New Product Diffusion
• Broadband Literature and Interviews
• Decision Criteria Function
• Potential Adopters
• Advertising
• The Impact of Policies on the Causal Diagram
• Simulation Model
• Model Structure
• Populating the Model with Data
• System Dynamics Model Output
• Policy Discussion
• Conclusions and Future Research
• References
• Part IV: System Dynamics in Healthcare
• System Dynamics Mapping of Acute Patient Flows
• Introduction
• Initiating the Project
• Project Purpose and Scope
• Designing an Approach: Practical Constraints and Methodological Issues
• Preliminary Activities
• Conceptual Framework for NHS Resources and Pathways
• Running the Workshops
• Post-workshop Activities
• Project Outputs
• Beyond the Project
• References
• Improving the Cost-Effectiveness of Chlamydia Screening with Targeted Screening Strategies
• Introduction
• Analysis of the Opportunistic Screening Data
• Geomapping Analysis
• Socio-economic Indicators and Prediction
• Simulation Modelling of Infection Dynamics and Costs-Effectiveness
• Conclusions and Policy Implications
• References
• Competitive Dynamics in Pharmaceutical Markets: A Case Study in the Chronic Cardiac Disease Mark
• Introduction
• Reforming Healthcare Policies—An Evolutionary Process
• Using System Dynamics Modelling in Health Care
• Problem Articulation and Dynamic Hypothesis
• Formulation and Testing
• Policy Formulation and Evaluation
• Facilitating the Development of Drug Regulation Through Modelling and Experimentation
• Conclusions
• References
• Index�