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• Cover
• Title
• Contents
• Introduction to the Fiftieth Anniversary Edition
• Part One: Stocks and Their Value
• 1. Firm Foundations and Castles in the Air
• What Is a Random Walk?
• Investing as a Way of Life Today
• Investing in Theory
• The Firm-Foundation Theory
• The Castle-in-the-Air Theory
• How the Random Walk Is to Be Conducted
• 2. The Madness of Crowds
• The Tulip-Bulb Craze
• The South Sea Bubble
• Wall Street Lays an Egg
• An Afterword
• 3. Speculative Bubbles from the Sixties into the Nineties
• The Sanity of Institutions
• The Soaring Sixties
• The New “New Era”: The Growth-Stock/New-Issue Craze
• Synergy Generates Energy: The Conglomerate Boom
• The Nifty Fifty
• The Roaring Eighties
• The Return of New Issues
• ZZZZ Best Bubble of All
• What Does It All Mean?
• The Japanese Yen for Land and Stocks
• 4. The Explosive Bubbles in the Early Decades of the 2000s
• The Internet Bubble
• A Broad-Scale High-Tech Bubble
• Yet Another New-Issue Craze
• TheGlobe.com
• Security Analysts $peak Up
• New Valuation Metrics
• The Writes of the Media
• Fraud Slithers In and Strangles the Market
• Should We Have Known the Dangers?
• The U.S. Housing Bubble and Crash of the Early 2000s
• The New System of Banking
• Looser Lending Standards
• The Housing Bubble
• Bubbles and Economic Activity
• Does This Mean That Markets Are Inefficient?
• Mini Bubbles in Meme Stocks
• The Bubble in Cryptocurrencies
• Bitcoin and Blockchain
• Is Bitcoin Real Money?
• Should the Bitcoin Phenomenon Be Called a Bubble?
• What Can Make the Bitcoin Bubble Deflate?
• Other Digital Mini-Bubbles
• Lessons Learned
• Part Two: How the Pros Play the Biggest Game in Town
• 5. Technical and Fundamental Analysis
• Technical versus Fundamental Analysis
• What Can Charts Tell You?
• The Rationale for the Charting Method
• Why Might Charting Fail to Work?
• From Chartist to Technician
• The Technique of Fundamental Analysis
• Three Important Caveats
• Why Might Fundamental Analysis Fail to Work?
• Using Fundamental and Technical Analysis Together
• 6. Technical Analysis and the Random-Walk Theory
• Holes in Their Shoes and Ambiguity in Their Forecasts
• Is There Momentum in the Stock Market?
• Just What Exactly Is a Random Walk?
• Some More Elaborate Technical Systems
• The Filter System
• The Dow Theory
• The Relative-Strength System
• Price-Volume Systems
• Reading Chart Patterns
• Randomness Is Hard to Accept
• A Gaggle of Other Technical Theories to Help You Lose Money
• The Hemline Indicator
• The Super Bowl Indicator
• Dogs of the Dow
• January Effect
• A Few More Systems
• Technical Market Gurus
• Appraising the Counterattack
• Implications for Investors
• 7. How Good is Fundamental Analysis? The Efficient-Market Hypothesis
• The Views from Wall Street and Academia
• Are Security Analysts Fundamentally Clairvoyant?
• Why the Crystal Ball Is Clouded
• 1. The Influence of Random Events
• 2. The Production of Dubious Reported Earnings through “Creative” Accounting Procedures
• 3. Errors Made by the Analysts Themselves
• 4. The Loss of the Best Analysts to the Sales Desk, to Portfolio Management, or to Hedge Funds
• 5. The Conflicts of Interest between Research and Investment Banking Departments
• Do Security Analysts Pick Winners? The Performance of the Mutual Funds
• The Semi-Strong and Strong Forms of the Efficient-Market Hypothesis (EMH)
• Part Three: The New Investment Technology
• 8. A New Walking Shoe: Modern Portfolio Theory
• The Role of Risk
• Defining Risk: The Dispersion of Returns
• Illustration: Expected Return and Variance Measures of Reward and Risk
• Documenting Risk: A Long-Run Study
• Reducing Risk: Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT)
• Diversification in Practice
• 9. Reaping Reward by Increasing Risk
• Beta and Systematic Risk
• The Capital-Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
• Let’s Look at the Record
• An Appraisal of the Evidence
• The Quant Quest for Better Measures of Risk: Arbitrage Pricing Theory
• The Fama-French Three-Factor Model
• A Multifactor Explanation of Stock Prices
• A Summing Up
• 10. Behavioral Finance
• The Irrational Behavior of Individual Investors
• Overconfidence
• Biased Judgments
• Herding
• Loss Aversion
• Pride and Regret
• Behavioral Finance and Savings
• The Limits to Arbitrage
• What Are the Lessons for Investors from Behavioral Finance?
• 1. Avoid Herd Behavior
• 2. Avoid Overtrading
• 3. If You Do Trade: Sell Losers, Not Winners
• 4. Other Stupid Investor Tricks
• Does Behavioral Finance Teach Ways to Beat the Market?
• 11. New Methods of Portfolio Construction: Smart Beta, Risk Parity, and Esg Investing
• What is “Smart Beta”?
• Four Tasty Flavors: Their Pros and Cons
• 1. Value Wins
• 2. Smaller Is Better
• 3. There Is Some Momentum in the Stock Market
• 4. Low-Beta Stocks May Return as Much as High-Beta Stocks
• 5. Other Factors
• What Could Go Wrong?
• Blended Factor Strategies
• Blended Funds in Practice
• Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA)
• Research Affiliates Fundamental Index™ (RAFI)
• Goldman Sachs Active Beta ETF
• Equally-Weighted Portfolios
• Implications for Investors
• Risk Parity
• The Risk-Parity Technique
• Safe Bonds May Also Provide Opportunities to Employ Risk-Parity Techniques
• Risk Parity versus the Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
• Bridgewater’s All Weather Fund
• What Could Go Wrong?
• ESG Investing
• Concluding Comments
• Part Four: A Practical Guide For Random Walkers and Other Investors
• 12. A Fitness Manual for Random Walkers and Other Investors
• Exercise 1: Gather the Necessary Supplies
• Exercise 2: Don’t Be Caught Empty-Handed: Cover Yourself with Cash Reserves and Insurance
• Cash Reserves
• Insurance
• Deferred Variable Annuities
• Exercise 3: Be Competitive—Let the Yield on Your Cash Reserve Keep Pace with Inflation
• Money-Market Mutual Funds (Money Funds)
• Bank Certificates of Deposit (CDs)
• Internet Banks
• Treasury Bills
• Tax-Exempt Money-Market Funds
• Exercise 4: Learn How to Dodge the Tax Collector
• Individual Retirement Accounts
• Roth IRAs
• Pension Plans
• Saving for College: As Easy as 529
• Exercise 5: Make Sure the Shoe Fits: Understand Your Investment Objectives
• Exercise 6: Begin Your Walk at Your Own Home—Renting Leads to Flabby Investment Muscles
• Exercise 7: How to Investigate a Promenade through Bond Country
• Zero-Coupon Bonds Can Be Useful to Fund Future Liabilities
• No-Load Bond Funds Can Be Appropriate Vehicles for Individual Investors
• Tax-Exempt Bonds Are Useful for High-Bracket Investors
• Hot TIPS: Inflation-Protected Bonds
• U.S. Treasury I Bonds: The Best Alternative for Individuals
• Should You Be a Bond-Market Junkie?
• Foreign Bonds
• Exercise 7A: Use Bond Substitutes for Part of the Aggregate Bond Portfolio during Eras of Financial Repression
• Exercise 8: Tiptoe through the Fields of Gold, Collectibles, and Other Investments
• Exercise 9: Remember That Investment Costs Are Not Random; Some Are Lower Than Others
• Exercise 10: Avoid Sinkholes and Stumbling Blocks: Diversify Your Investment Steps
• A Final Checkup
• 13. Handicapping the Financial Race: A Primer in Understanding and Projecting Returns From Stocks and Bonds
• What Determines the Returns from Stocks and Bonds?
• Four Historical Eras of Financial Market Returns
• Era I: The Age of Comfort
• Era II: The Age of Angst
• Era III: The Age of Exuberance
• Era IV: The Age of Disenchantment
• The Markets from 2009 to 2022
• Handicapping Future Returns
• 14. A Life-Cycle Guide to Investing
• Five Asset-Allocation Principles
• 1. Risk and Reward Are Related
• 2. Your Actual Risk in Stock and Bond Investing Depends on the Length of Time You Hold Your Investment
• 3. Dollar-Cost Averaging Can Reduce the Risks of Investing in Stocks and Bonds
• 4. Rebalancing Can Reduce Investment Risk and Possibly Increase Returns
• 5. Distinguishing between Your Attitude toward and Your Capacity for Risk
• Three Guidelines to Tailoring a Life-Cycle Investment Plan
• 1. Specific Needs Require Dedicated Specific Assets
• 2. Recognize Your Tolerance for Risk
• 3. Persistent Saving in Regular Amounts, No Matter How Small, Pays Off
• The Life-Cycle Investment Guide
• Life-Cycle (Target Date) Funds
• Investment Management Once You Have Retired
• Inadequate Preparation for Retirement
• Investing a Retirement Nest Egg
• Annuities
• The Do-It-Yourself Method
• 15. Three Giant Steps Down Wall Street
• The No-Brainer Step: Investing in Index Funds
• The Index-Fund Solution: A Summary
• A Broader Definition of Indexing
• A Specific Index-Fund Portfolio
• ETFs and Taxes
• The Do-It-Yourself Step: Potentially Useful Stock-Picking Rules
• The Substitute-Player Step: Hiring a Professional Wall Street Walker
• Investment Advisers, Standard and Automated
• Some Last Reflections on Our Walk
• A Final Example
• Epilogue
• Acknowledgments
• A Random Walker’s Address Book and Reference Guide to Mutual Funds and ETFs
• Index
• Copyright