Efnisyfirlit

• Half-title
• Title
• Copyright
• Contents
• Introduction
• Acknowledgements
• 1 An introduction to climate change
• 1.1 Weather or climate
• 1.2 The greenhouse effect
• 1.3 The carbon cycle
• 1.4 Natural changes in the carbon cycle
• 1.5 Pacemaker of the glacial?interglacial cycles
• 1.6 Non-greenhouse influences on climate
• 1.7 The water cycle, climate change and biology
• 1.8 From theory to reality
• 1.9 References
• 2 Principal indicators of past climates
• 2.1 Terrestrial biotic climatic proxies
• 2.1.1 Tree-ring analysis (dendrochronology)
• 2.1.2 Isotopic dendrochronology
• 2.1.3 Leaf shape (morphology)
• 2.1.4 Leaf physiology
• 2.1.5 Pollen and spore analysis
• 2.1.6 Species as climate proxies
• 2.2 Marine biotic climatic proxies
• 2.2.1 38O isotope analysis of forams and corals
• 2.2.2 Alkenone analysis
• 2.3 Non-biotic indicators
• 2.3.1 Isotopic analysis of water
• 2.3.2 Boreholes
• 2.3.3 Carbon dioxide and methane records as palaeoclimatic forcing agents
• 2.3.4 Dust as an indicator of dry?wet hemispheric climates
• 2.4 Other indicators
• 2.5 Interpreting indicators
• 2.6 Conclusions
• 2.7 References
• 3 Past climate change
• 3.1 Early biology and climate of the Hadean and Archeaen eons (4.6?2.5 billion years ago, bya)
• 3.1.1 The pre-biotic Earth (4.6?3.8 bya)
• 3.1.2 The early biotic Earth (3.8?2.3 bya)
• 3.2 Major bio-climatic events of the Proterozoic eon (2.5?0.542 bya)
• 3.2.1 Earth in the anaerobic?aerobic transition (2.6?1.7 bya)
• 3.2.2 The aerobic Earth (from 1.7 bya)
• 3.3 Major bio-climatic events of the pre-Quaternary Phanerozoic (540?2 mya)
• 3.3.1 Late-Ordovician extinction (455?435 mya)
• 3.3.2 Late-Devonian extinction (365?363.5 mya)
• 3.3.3 Vascular plants and the atmospheric depletion of carbon dioxide (350?275 mya)
• 3.3.4 Permo?Carboniferous glaciation (330?250 mya)
• 3.3.5 End-Permian extinction (251 mya)
• 3.3.6 End-Triassic extinction (205 mya)
• 3.3.7 Toarcian (early (late lower) Jurassic) extinction (183 mya)
• 3.3.8 Cretaceous?Tertiary extinction (65.5 mya)
• 3.3.9 Eocene climatic maximum (55?54.8 mya)
• 3.3.10 Eocene?Oligocene extinction (approximately 35 mya; or 33.9 mya?)
• 3.3.11 Late Miocene expansion of C4 grasses (14?9 mya)
• 3.4 Summary
• 3.5 References
• 4 The Oligocene to the Quaternary: climate and biology
• 4.1 The Oligocene (33.9?23.03 mya)
• 4.2 The end Miocene (9?5.3 mya)
• 4.3 The Pliocene (5.3 ?1.8 mya)
• 4.4 The current ice age
• 4.5 The last glacial
• 4.5.1 Overview of temperature, carbon dioxide and timing
• 4.5.2 Ice and sea level
• 4.5.3 Temperature changes within the glacial
• 4.5.4 Biological and environmental impacts of the last glacial
• 4.6 Interglacials and the present climate
• 4.6.1 Previous interglacials
• 4.6.2 The Aller?d, B?lling and Younger Dryas (14 600?11 600 years ago)
• 4.6.3 The Holocene (11 500 years ago ? the Industrial Revolution)
• 4.6.4 Biological response to the last glacial, LGM and Holocene transition
• 4.7 Summary
• 4.8 References
• 5 Present climate and biological change
• 5.1 Recent climate change
• 5.1.1 The latter half of the Little Ice Age
• 5.1.2 Twentieth-century climate
• 5.1.3 Twenty-first-century climate
• 5.1.4 The Holocene interglacial beyond the twenty-first century
• 5.1.5 Holocene summary
• 5.2 Human change arising from the Holocene climate
• 5.2.1 Climatic impacts on early human civilisations
• 5.2.2 The Little Ice Age?s human impact
• 5.2.3 Increasing twentieth-century human climatic insulation
• 5.3 Climate and business as usual in the twenty-first century
• 5.3.1 IPCC Business as Usual
• 5.3.2 Uncertainties and the IPCC?s conclusions
• 5.4 Current human influences on the carbon cycle
• 5.4.1 Carbon dioxide
• 5.4.2 Methane
• 5.4.3 Halocarbons
• 5.4.4 Nitrous oxide
• 5.5 References
• 6 Current warming and likely future impacts
• 6.1 Current biological symptoms of warming
• 6.1.1 Current boreal dendrochronological response
• 6.1.2 Current tropical-rainforest response
• 6.1.3 Some biological dimensions of the climatic-change fingerprint
• 6.1.4 Phenology
• 6.1.5 Biological communities and species shift
• 6.2 Case study: climate and natural systems in the USA
• 6.3 Case study: climate and natural systems in the UK
• Low vulnerability
• Low-to-medium vulnerability
• Medium vulnerability
• Medium-to-high vulnerability
• High vulnerability
• Unknown vulnerability
• 6.4 Biological response to greenhouse trends beyond the twenty-first century
• 6.5 Possible surprise responses to greenhouse trends in the twenty-first century and beyond
• 6.5.1 Extreme weather events
• 6.5.2 Greenhouse gases
• 6.5.3 Sea-level rise
• 6.5.4 Methane hydrates (methane clathrates)
• 6.5.5 Volcanoes
• 6.5.6 Oceanic and atmospheric circulation
• 6.5.7 Ocean acidity
• 6.5.8 The probability of surprises
• 6.6 References
• 7 The human ecology of climate change
• 7.1 Population (past, present and future) and its environmental impact
• 7.1.1 Population and environmental impact
• 7.1.2 Past and present population
• 7.1.3 Future population
• 7.1.4 Food
• 7.1.5 Impact on other species
• 7.2 Energy supply
• 7.2.1 Energy supply ? the historical context
• 7.2.2 Future energy supply
• 7.3 Human health and climate change
• 7.3.1 Health and weather extremes
• 7.3.2 Climate change and disease
• 7.3.3 Flooding and health
• 7.3.4 Droughts
• 7.4 Climate change and food security
• 7.4.1 Past and present food security
• 7.4.2 Future food security and climate change
• 7.5 The biology of reducing anthropogenic climate change
• 7.5.1 Terrestrial photosynthesis and soil carbon
• 7.5.2 Manipulating marine photosynthesis
• 7.5.3 Biofuels
• 7.6 Summary and conclusions
• 7.7 References
• 8 Sustainability and policy
• 8.1 Key developments of sustainability policy
• 8.1.1 UN Conference on the Human Environment (1972)
• 8.1.2 The Club of Rome?s Limits to Growth (1972)
• 8.1.3 World Climate Conference (1979)
• 8.1.4 The World Conservation Strategy (1980)
• 8.1.5 The Brandt Report ? Common Crisis North-South (1980)
• 8.1.6 The Brundtland, World Commission on Environment and Development Report (1987)
• 8.1.7 United Nations? Conference on the Environment and Development – Rio de Janeiro (1992)
• 8.1.8 The Kyoto Protocol (1997)
• 8.1.9 Johannesburg Summit ? UNCED+10 (2002)
• 8.1.10 Post 2002
• 8.2 Energy sustainability and carbon (global)
• 8.2.1 Prospects for savings from changes in land use
• 8.2.2 Prospects for savings from improvements in energy efficiency
• 8.2.3 Prospects for fossil-carbon savings from renewable energy
• 8.2.4 Prospects for carbon-capture technology
• 8.2.5 Prospects for nuclear options
• 8.2.6 Overall prospects for fossil-carbon savings to 2025
• 8.3 Energy policy and carbon
• 8.3.1 Case history: USA
• 8.3.2 Case history: UK
• 8.3.3 Case history: China and India
• 8.4 Possible future energy options
• 8.4.1 Managing fossil-carbon emissions ? the scale of the problem
• 8.4.2 Fossil futures
• 8.4.3 Nuclear futures
• 8.4.4 Renewable futures
• 8.4.5 Low-energy futures
• 8.4.6 Possible future energy options and greenhouse gases
• 8.5 Future human and biological change
• 8.5.1 The ease and difficulty of adapting to future impacts
• 8.5.2 Future climate change and human health
• 8.5.3 Future climate and human-ecology implications for wildlife
• 8.5.4 Reducing future anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions
• 8.5.5 A final conclusion
• 8.6 References
• Appendix 1 Glossary and abbreviations
• Glossary
• Abbreviations
• Appendix 2 Bio-geological chronology
• Appendix 3 Calculations of energy demand/supply and orders of magnitude
• Calculations of energy demand/supply
• Orders of magnitude
• Sources
• Appendix 4 The IPCC 2007 report
• References
• Index