Efnisyfirlit

• Cover
• Title
• Copyright
• Dedication
• Acknowledgments
• Chapter 1: Introduction
• 1.1 About This Book
• 1.2 Technology and Society
• 1.3 Management and the Future
• 1.4 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 2: Technology Forecasting
• 2.1 What Is Technology Forecasting?
• 2.2 Methodological Foundations
• 2.3 Technology Forecasting Methods
• 2.4 Conclusion
• References
• Chapter 3: Managing the Forecasting Project
• 3.1 Information Needs of the Forecasting Project
• 3.2 Planning the Technology Forecast
• 3.3 Team Organization, Management, and Communications
• 3.4 Success: The Right Information at the Right Time
• 3.5 Project Scheduling
• 3.6 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 4: Exploring
• 4.1 Establishing the Context—the TDS
• 4.2 Monitoring
• 4.3 The Stimulation of Creativity
• 4.4 Conclusion
• References
• Chapter 5: Gathering and Using Information
• 5.1 Expert Opinion
• 5.2 Gathering Information on the Internet
• 5.3 Structuring the Search
• 5.4 Preparing Search Results
• 5.5 Using Search Results
• 5.6 Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators
• 5.7 Communicating Search Results
• 5.8 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 6: Analyzing Phase
• 6.1 Perspective on Data and Methods
• 6.2 Linear Regression and Extensions
• 6.3 Growth Models
• 6.4 Simulation
• 6.5 Monte Carlo Simulation
• 6.6 System Dynamics
• 6.7 Gaming
• 6.8 Software Suggestions
• References
• Chapter 7: Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis
• 7.1 Uncertainty
• 7.2 Scenarios
• 7.3 Examples and Applications
• 7.4 Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques
• 7.5 Conclusions
• References
• Chapter 8: Economic and Market Analysis
• 8.1 The Context
• 8.2 Forecasting the Market
• 8.3 Forecasting the Economic Context
• 8.4 Forecasting in an Institutional Context
• 8.5 Conclusion
• References
• Chapter 9: Impact Assessment
• 9.1 Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting
• 9.2 Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology
• 9.3 A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment
• 9.4 Impact Identification
• 9.5 Impact Analysis
• 9.6 Impact Evaluation
• 9.7 Conclusion
• References
• Chapter 10: Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis
• 10.1 Opportunity Costs and Choices
• 10.2 Cost-Benefit Analysis
• 10.3 Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty
• 10.4 Concluding the Focusing Phase
• References
• Chapter 11: Implementing the Technology
• 11.1 Forecasting Continues
• 11.2 Implementation Issues
• 11.3 Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation
• 11.4 Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology
• 11.5 Technology Roadmapping
• 11.6 Summary and Concluding Observations
• References
• Chapter 12: Managing the Present from the Future
• 12.1 The Overall Approach
• 12.2 Selecting Methods and Techniques
• 12.3 Alternative Perspectives
• 12.4 Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments
• 12.5 Visions
• 12.6 A Final Word
• References
• Appendix A: Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells
• A.1 Framing the Case Study
• A.2 Methods
• A.3 The Rest of the Story
• References
• Index
• End User License Agreement